Public Skating

The Minnesota boys’ state tournament has been a gathering spot for standout players for 80 years, players who have gone on to collegiate, professional and Olympic stardom.

And there’s no drop-off in talent in sight. The names for this week’s tourney in St. Paul are as big as they’ve ever been — it includes 14 players committed to Division I colleges, seven of the state’s top 10 scorers and six of the 10 Mr. Hockey finalists.

Many of those players turned down opportunities to play elsewhere (Triple-A and junior leagues, mostly) this season to stay in their communities and play with their childhood buddies. Unlike in any other high school sport, Minnesota hockey players are targeted by entities other than colleges looking to fill out rosters, put fans in seats and sell concessions and merchandise. Hundreds of teams and programs promise advanced development — a quicker path to Division I colleges and the pros for those who leave before their senior seasons.

This isn’t a new phenomenon. Top players have been leaving their high school programs before their senior seasons since the 1990s. Such player movement has become easier and easier to track in recent years, and since the 2020-21 season at least 112 players have left early for Triple-A and junior programs, including 22 before this season.

Despite assurances by many recruiters, an in-depth study on when and how Minnesota players reach Division I programs reveals that there’s no advantage to be gained by leaving high school early to play in other leagues.

A comparison of players with 2021 and 2022 high school graduation years who left their school programs early versus an equal number of top players who stayed through their senior season shows that the percentage of players reaching Division I programs sooner favors the players who stick with their community programs.

Of graduating seniors in 2021 and 2022, 59 percent who left their high schools early reached Division I college programs by their third season after their graduation year. By comparison, 78 percent of the same number of elite-level players who stayed in their communities moved on to DI programs by their third season after graduating.

The numbers confirm what Keith Hendrickson, an amateur scout for the Vegas Golden Knights and former Virginia/Mountain Iron-Buhl coach, has believed for years.

"The bottom line, in my opinion, is that if a young athlete has the athletic talent, passion and compete level ... the chosen path ends up making little difference to the eventual highpoint of that athlete's career," Hendrickson said. "This player will rise to his highest level regardless of the path chosen. For most, the risk of leaving early may not be worth any perceived rewards for doing so. 

“So for those who consider leaving early, it must be done so with a lot of thought and perspective. For there is no shortcut to greatness, no matter what some may try to tell kids and parents.”

The instincts of many of the state’s top players are among the traits that make them great — both on and off the ice. Rogers senior Mason Jenson, a Mr. Hockey finalist committed to Ohio State, spent the fall playing for the Tri-City Storm of the USHL but never considered abandoning his Royals teammates for a full season of juniors.    

“A lot of us on our team this season … maybe could have had other options and maybe could have left,” said Jenson, who ranks second in the state with 85 points and leads the Royals against Edina on Thursday in a state Class 2A quarterfinal. “This is our last year doing it all together, and we are embracing it. You are never going to get this year back. Senior year is probably the best time of your life.”

Of the 250 Minnesotans playing at the men’s Division I level this season, 90 percent played high school hockey. Among those who played at least one season of high school hockey but left before their senior season to play at the Triple-A or junior level, just 11 percent reached Division I by their second year out of high school. That compares to the 16 percent of players who stayed in high school and reached DI after spending a year or less in juniors. 

“That’s what makes Minnesota special,” said Moorhead’s Mason Kraft, a Mr. Hockey finalist who ranks third in the state in scoring and leads the Spuds against Lakeville South in a state Class 2A quarterfinal on Thursday. “There isn’t another place in the country where you can play with your buddies in front of your classmates and communities.”

The numbers show that, in most cases, players who leave high school before their senior season are simply trading their senior season of high school hockey for an extra year of playing at the junior level.

“I just know from my experience at BSM that the kids who left early did not accelerate,” said Benilde-St. Margaret’s coach Ken Pauly, who just completed his 32nd season guiding the Red Knights. “The majority who left BSM early have crashed and burned rather than make it at all.”

Burnout is a significant problem for players who depart their high school programs early. Of the players with 2020 and 2021 graduation years who left high school early 33 percent never reached the Division I level. By comparison, of the same number of top players who stayed through their senior seasons of high school, only 13 percent failed to reach Division I (two players with DI commitments are in their third season of juniors).

“I just have my own anecdotal evidence from my own experience,” Pauly said. “I’ve thought, ‘What did they gain from doing that?' I’ve just never had the data.”

Data was sourced from Legacy Hockey and College Hockey Inc. and compiled by Louis Snee of Minnesota Hockey and Loren Nelson of Legacy Hockey.